Wattsight Launches Price Forecast For Continuous Intraday Trading

Wattsight Intraday Predict
Product Editorial
Oct. 23, 2019Johannes Holdø

Wattsight are proud to present a world premiere: Intraday Insight & Predict, the market’s first and only price forecast for continuous Intraday trading. Our new analysis product is powered by a machine-learning model that continually evaluates large input volumes and real-time data. A well-trained algorithm weighs all these inputs, understands the price implications and how they perform.

The Intraday Challenge

Successful trading on the continuous Intraday power market is demanding. Participants need to evaluate various inputs, understand their impact on the price, foresee how prices may evolve until gate closure, and this almost in real-time. This complexity is hard to handle because the trading is continuous and a single forecast variable, like in the case of a Day-Ahead Auction price forecast, does not exist.  

Predicting the Unpredictable

With the continuous trading design in mind, we have designed an entirely new method of creating a price forecast output structure, including Prediction Tags and Direction Hits. The Prediction Tag depicts the index we are forecasting and results in a volume-weighted average price for different target periods before delivery (e.g. 90-30 minutes before gate closure). The Direction Hit is the delta between the forecasted value and the currently traded price. Depending on the sign (positive or negative), it indicates which position you should take. 

New Markets, Continuous Improvements

Intraday Insight & Predict is available for the German continuous Intraday market. By the end of 2019, we will have added price forecasts for France and Belgium as well as additional Direction Tags. We will be continuously improving the model and the model setup.

Wattsight Knows Intraday

Another feature are the Market Drivers (e.g. actual generation, forecasts, forecast shifts, outages, outages and prices). Market Drivers are available for all European markets and delivered in our data-series API designed with the market in mind. Intraday Live Prices, as well as one of the market-leading Imbalance analysis, make Wattsight the prefered analysis provider for Intraday trading.

Proven Performance

Learn how Intraday Predict can add value to your trading strategy. We are holding a webinar to help you getting started and to show you the results of our shadow portfolio. Click here to register or get in touch today with Josie Roser, Senior Sales Manager, email: sales@wattsight.com, phone: +47 404 54 176.

Download: Intraday promotional brochure