Medium-term Power Forecast Upgraded

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Feb. 1, 2018Dr. Carsten Trapp

Wattsight has increased the coverage of its medium-term power forecast by adding two new price zones: Spain and Portugal. Moreover, we have extended the analysis by fuel and emission scenarios to provide you an estimate of the price sensitivity for traded forward products to changes in commodity prices.

A Comprehensive Fundamental Forecast

Our medium-term forecast covers all traded power-products ranging from time horizons of two weeks up to three years ahead. We base our forecasts on market intelligence and a fundamental model simulating detailed generator dispatch on an hourly level. This enables us to forecast the price formation and power flow between interlinked power markets. The continental model was developed with the integrated energy simulation environment PLEXOS®. For the Nord Pool market, we use the EMPS model system.

Forecasting Spain and Portugal

In addition to Central Western Europe, we cover now the Iberian peninsula. The most important generation resources in Spain and Portugal are nuclear, wind, coal, gas and hydro. The thermal and nuclear generation categories are represented on a unit level in the fundamental model comprising of plants with a total installed capacity of 47 GW:

  • 7 nuclear plants 
  • 31 coal-fired plants 
  • 3 lignite-fired 
  • 62 gas-fired CCGT plants

More Flexibility with Fuel and Emission Scenarios

We also added a fuel and emission scenario to give you more flexibility in your daily analysis of the different forward products. Based on the scenario forecasts, we estimate the sensitivity of the power prices to changes in coal, gas or CO2 price. With the sensitivity value, you can now easily estimate by how much power prices increase. The scenario calculations are updated bi-weekly and available for each price zone.

Medium-term Power Forecast - Scenario for Fuel and Emissions

Consistent Fundamental Model Along the Entire Curve 

The generation of the weather-dependent fundamentals wind, solar and hydro are calculated with our Weather-To-Fundamental models - also used for the Short-term Power Forecast - and are therefore exogenous input variables to the model. Spain is interconnected with the French and Portuguese price zone. The power flow is calculated based on the available grid capacity. 

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