Update of Long-Term Power Price Prognoses for Central Europe

Long-term Power Prognosis - PPA Prices
Aug. 30, 2019Espen Andreassen

Wattsight has published an update of the long term report, covering power price developments for Central Europe until 2045

The report provides customers with a unique insight into policy backgrounds and forecasts/assumptions on fuel and carbon prices. By applying these in a detailed price modelling tool for Germany, France, the UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Austria, Spain and Portugal covering the period 2019-2037, we provide long-term power balances and power price prognoses. 

Major Market Developments 

With quarterly updates, the report frequently evaluates the outlooks for long term power balances. Since the launch of the Long Term Report in 2018, the report has increased its focus on major developments going on in Europe:

  • German Panel on coal-fired generation, and the implications for the security of supply
  • Altered policy on French nuclear reductions
  • Revised expectations of the shift from thermal and nuclear generation to renewables
  • Soaring CO2 prices to affect industrial competitiveness

We have put together a PDF with major findings. Click here to open the document in a new tab.

Weather Scenarios Added 

Our expertise in weather data for power markets across Europe enables us to provide weather scenarios. This gives us the opportunity to make a closer evaluation of profile effects of a realistic weather pattern. The report provides insights into how long term power prices will develop. Given 2005 weather, for example, Europe’s long term power prices when applying 2005 sunshine in Spain, 2005 wind speeds for Belgium and 2005 temperatures for France will differ from a normal weather scenario. Along with weather scenarios, the report also unveils findings of capture price (obtained power prices) for onshore/offshore wind and solar power.  

A Must-Have for Calculation of Market Values

We present results on expected numbers of negative prices and price spikes as well as forecasts for capture costs for Wind onshore, Wind offshore and Solar. In addition, we deliver also the hourly simulation results for the normal weather scenario and the weather years 2005 to 2009 for the years 2020 to 2035

The report has been published on app.wattsight.com on Tuesday, September 3, 2019. Questions? Get in touch today.