Advances in wind power technology will give us windmills with increased power efficiency. We are now taking this development into account when computing normal assumptions for wind power.
The update has now been implemented for all other remaining areas as well. (Original post follows)
When we compute the wind production several years ahead
(i.e. normal assumptions), it is very clear that the production is heavily
affected by the development of wind power capacity (see figure below). There is
also another factor that should be taken into account when calculating normal
assumptions, and that is the increased efficiency of future wind mills. Windmills
in the future will be able to produce more power from the same amount of wind.
This last factor of increased efficiency has traditionally
not been a part of our model, but this is about to change. We are now
multiplying the production with an efficiency factor. This factor will
typically increase the further ahead in time we are predicting and lead to increased normal assumptions.
The result can be seen below. Notice how the normal
assumptions have increased after being multiplied with an efficiency factor. The wind power capacity is also plotted, to display its close
relation to the normal assumptions.
For now, this update has only been implemented for the Nordic
areas (NO, SE, DK), but it is going to be implemented for the other areas as